Economy Cycle

But let's for now start off on a big picture angle here. You've been, of late, speaking a lot about t I'd So that's the starting point for the conversation. Can you just lay out thesis at t Yeah, about, I don't know, eight, ten years ago, I began to see t And then I thought I better go back and study the rises and declines of reserve currencies. And so before the dollar, there was the British Pound and before that there was the Dutch Guilder. So I looked at these cycles and you see the cycles. And I see we're in the cycle. There's a financial component to that cycle, w And then the limitations of that, and we'll get into that in a moment. That's then there's an internal cohesiveness clash cycle that has to do about money to, w And then there's a t But the t And they all sort of go together because, Are you strong? Do you, do you are you strong economically and so on. So let me just fast forward on the financial part of that. The cycle is really that debt and credit creates buying power. And so it's a short term stimulative and it's a longer term depressant, because you have to pay it back. And so every time an economy gets weaker and so they jab it with credit, and it p And then but it acc So as you get down to something They own the bonds. They own the financial assets and all of those financial assets are claims on real stuff, real goods and services. So when we t And the incentives for not holding that are no longer there. You have a problem. Okay, because You have those financial assets want to go to get the tangible assets in the old days. That would be go get the gold or somet But when you go there, there's too many claims to for to get it. And then you have that problem and inevitably, there's the printing of money so we can. So we can t And that is when the United States won the war these cycles happen t Nobody thought of it as having any value it was And so the little pieces of paper would go get you the gold, and that system, then resulted in us spending with the privilege of the reserve currency and that's people want to lend to us. And so we could spend more than we earned and those who got these dollars, turn those dollars in to get their gold, and the gold stocks went down and then in 1971. I remember it well because I was clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, President Nixon says to the country or says to the world, and is very polite and diplomatic way that you're not going to get the gold anymore. And so there was the devaluation, okay, meaning, okay you and the printing of money and we had the 70s and so on. So we're in a situation that's like that we have the decline in, So they have to, they, but everybody needs more money. So, we need that more money so money is credit, you can make it up. The government creates a lot of credit, and the central bank prints a lot of money, and there's not much incentive to hold t And if you think about bonds, okay that's not a, there's not much incentive there, And so now we have a supply demand problem, okay, because as you look at the budgets and you look ahead, we know we're going to need a lot more money, a lot more debt, and it's, and t Now I can keep going on about what happens in that dynamic. It may be capital controls, you start to go to things where that money wants to go someplace, and it goes to almost anything else, particularly at all that time I learned in 1971, painfully learned in 71, that it causes I t