Cycle Analysis

O&DS, again, everything has to be looked at. All of your trades need to be looked at in terms of both odds and bias, right? Combination of that. Not just, Where was the highest odds played? Again, in O&DS, It was right there. A little bit of an equilibri O&DS set up right there. You can see that. Your eyes should immediately go to where that opportunity was. O&DS had a trough that was formed right here and then just blasted off with the equal highs. Very important. We're looking at either equal highs or equal lows and watching that very closely, right? Because that means that there were sellers who came in at those same prices. So what would happen if we actually traded through there? You got to ask that question, right? That's why we saw such a move O&DS still in a rising phase, overall acting well. 16 bucks is the next fit. But there's your set up right there. We sold down into the weekly trough. We formed what kind of translation? Bullish right hand translation here and then built, built, built, mini base forming. You see that right there? I just want our eyes to get trained on this. Yes, on that day, it did not fall through right away. So if you were long at that key level, 9. 79, stop for me would be right there. 8. 19, that's your risk. Target right there. It's just over one time, maybe a little bit more. Let'see exactly what that n Once again, this is why this is a very volatile underline. 160, about 190, that's your first area. We got there in just one and a half bars and then you can see it continued a little bit higher. But that's how If you want to do it a little bit closer, you just have to be aware you're going to have to very It may take a few times actually be able to hold that for the larger move, the closer your stop. So your overall win rate would go down, but your average win, average loss ideally should be going up. Your average win over your average loss. If you keep it a little bit wider, you'd have a little higher win rate or at least you should, but your average win loss is going to come down a little bit in terms of that ratio, right? Because you're having to take a little bit more risk. So that's what to be aware of. But you want to see this closely. This is a very important observation right here. Look at what happened the following day. So let'say you were long on this day. This happens all the time. You want to watch closely what happens that following day. Go back and look at this on your own at key upside areas where you leave a shadow and you close right at that area. One would say, okay, I can't be long. What I The reason I do that is because oftentimes Okay. Let's go to that 30 minute bar on 1231. I think this is an important exercise. Okay. So this is it right here. You had the move. You had that clean break 1231. You had the rally. This is how it opened rally, right on the clear breakout right there, right? Rally gave you the move. Great. Feeling good. And then toward the close, ease its way back into the end of the year. Right? I Does it trade in the shadow? In this case, it did. It opened in the shadow. When something opens in the shadow, that should be a huge sign that this is not yet done. The following bar after a shadow When it opens in the bar, give it a chance, right? In the same way, I've seen a lot of folks just who will exit because it didn't have a sharp bar right away. Everyone's got their own style. But what I've found to be more helpful is to see where it opens. It opened in the bar the following day. If it doesn't and it trades back through here, much less interested in it, right? Now, very Not full exit, decreasing the size because it isn't ready. But in this case, it actually opened the following day in that shadow and then it was gone. That's what you'll see. When it is actually positive, it will open that following day in the shadow of that first day when it tried to break out. That'something that's very important. Little things that I've seen that I'm hoping are going to hit home for you or maybe they are right now, which would be cool. Low here, 120 to about 22. Again, these are things that I've had to learn over now, 15 years plus of doing this day in, day out, trade in, trade out to say, hey, how can I hold this without getting shaken out? How can I do? It's That's what I'm saying. I'm going to be doing this for the rest of my life because you'll never stop learning. It'such a fun thing to do. It'so challenging, so much learning, so much growth that happens for you. It's really incredible. Right now, rising phase. It's had its move. The highest odds play, highest odds set up right there. Bias was also positive prior to the break. Bias is still positive, but the odds aren't as great at this point for immediate upside after some kind of consolidation. That's what I think it needs to happen.