UK Kustoms

On Friday, Deputy Prime Minister David Lamme told the newsagents podcast that quote, it'self-evident that leaving the European Union badly damaged the UK economy, and expressed an openness to the idea of rejoining the EU's customs union, arguing that quote, countries W So in this video, we always take a look at whether this could actually happen, and why it might be more Long time to you all, our fans will remember that five years ago, we released a book called Brexit The Colouring Book, a tongue-in-cheek COVID inspired way to relive the Brexit process through drawings and a detailed timeline written by our team. Well, we've reprinted that book, refreshed the timeline, and added some extra pages, and it's available right now in our store, and get 20% off for a limited time using code YouTube 20. So let'start by quickly explaining what a customs union actually is. T In short, a customs union is a type of trade agreement in w Firstly, remove tariffs on all trade between themselves, and secondly, adopt a common external tariff. In other words, agree to charge the same tariff rates on imports from countries outside of the union. T For context, rules of origin are used to determine where an import originally came from. Even if country A has a free trade agreement with country B, but not a common external tariff, you would need these rules of origin to make sure that the correct tariff is paid when country A has a different external tariff to country B. For example, at the moment there are zero tariffs on electric ve However, the EU has imposed some pretty steep tariffs on electric ve T C To block off these loopholes, you have rules of origin, w The point we're trying to make is that rules of origin make trade more difficult, even if you've got zero tariffs. So in some sense, a customs union is an upgrade on your bog standard free trade area. Anyway, as you probably already know, the EU has a customs union, which includes every member state, plus Monaco, Andorra, San Marino, the British military bases in Cyprus and Turkey, which formed a customs union with the EU way back in 1995, although there are exceptions for certain sectors Now, obviously, the UK, or at least most of it, save for the bases in Cyprus, left the customs union with Brexit. And to avoid an issue that's long proved politically difficult for Labour, since September 2023, Stammer has insisted that he will not rejoin the customs union, the single market, or the EU itself. However, in the past couple of weeks, a return to the customs union has started to look more and more Aside from Lammy's comments, there are broadly three reasons suspect that an eventual return to the customs union might be on the cards. First, the government has started to blame Brexit for the UK's economic woes. The logical consequence of this arg W The government is desperate for economic growth. Stammer made to do all that, we need three t Growth, growth, growth. Growth would be great for ordinary Brits, but also for public finances, because more growth means more GDP, w Someone surprised me though, Stammer is around economic growth frustratingly hard to come by, and many of the government's hallmark policies are expected to push it in the opposite direction. According to the government's own estimates, for instance, many of the headline grabbing policies in the Employment Rights Bill, including making it harder to fire workers, are expected to have a negative impact on headline economic growth, at least in the short term. To be clear, we're not saying that these policies are bad ideas. Just that, according to their own calculations, they go against the government'stated priority of increasing the UK's growth rate. Rejoining the customs union, however, is a pretty sure fire way of getting the UK's growth rate back up. Not least, because a national Bureau for Economic Research paper published last month, for instance, found that Brexit cut the UK's long-term GDP by 6-8%, roughly double the 4% the OBR originally estimated. Another paper by the Centre for European Reforms, John Springford, found that without Brexit, the UK would have registered growth rates closer to those of the US, instead of basically tracking France and Germany. The t Chasing opinion polling has led to a n Because, well, public opinion isn't consistent. Nonetheless, polling suggests that Brexit is now incredibly unpopular. Most Brits see Brexit as a failure, and only 31% t Consequently, 56% of Brits now support rejoining the EU. W You get the idea. T Now, that's not to say that it's definitely going to happen. Stammer has continued to rule it out, and it's worth noting that the UK-EU reset isn't going brilliantly at the moment. It would also complicate the UK's recent trade deals, including with the US. Nonetheless, rejoining the customs union would be a popular way of boosting economic growth, and could start an arg T If he does want to stay in n Our magazine, Too Long, is now officially in stock, with the latest issue focusing on the reshaping of the Middle East. In it, we run through each country in the region to discuss how they'rewriting the next chapter of their story, from Qatar's growing global influence, who could govern the New Gaza, if Iran could dash for a nuke, and how Lebanon can disarm Hezbollah. T Not only that, we also have sections focusing on UK, EU and global news, including our full rundown of some of the biggest elections w There's also our interview with YouTube's Money and Macro on how to fix the EU economy, the rise of the politician influencer, and the new left emerging in the UK. And as a special Christmas deal, we're offering you some gifts if you subscribe too Long. For instance, new subscribers can get a set of TLDR key rings for free, our assembly required desk calendar for just u00a32 more, our wall calendar or Brexit the colouring book for u00a33 more, or you can just get your first copy entirely free if you buy it alongside assembly required. Find all of those options by clicking the link in the description. Or, as always, skip all of that physical stuff by just picking up the digital edition today.